Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Tabletop

Of 321 developers who shipped a Tabletop Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 478 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 478 games are announced against 200 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 45% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 478 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 321
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $3.8k → $1.2k → $1.6k → $449 → $359 → $299 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 321
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 5% $96k (exactly $95,623)
Developers, 2 yr 321
Released games 831
Announced 478
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 9,696 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 156 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 478 games are announced against 200 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus older $29.99 11,279 91% 338k $10M (exactly $10,147,716) Bulwark Studios
Blood Bowl 2: Legendary Edition (Classic) older $29.99 7,077 78% 212k $6.4M (exactly $6,367,177) Cyanide Studios
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Blood Bowl 3 older $29.99 3,940 51% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,544,818) Cyanide Studio
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Demeo older $39.99 1,703 87% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,089) Resolution Games
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Cardboard Town older $19.99 2,051 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Stratera Games, cukuto
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Terrinoth®: Heroes of Descent $34.99 441 75% 13k $463k (exactly $462,918) Artefacts Studio, Shine Group
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Viractal: Will You Trust Your Party? $24.99 448 88% 13k $336k (exactly $335,866) Sting
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Dobbel Dungeon $19.99 441 92% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) Gamepie
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.