Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Superhero

Of 27 developers who shipped a Superhero Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $88k, ×59 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 24 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $2.7k → $8.5k → $21k → $9.0k → $11k → $0 (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,688)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,112)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 79
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 175,504 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Batman - The Telltale Series older $14.99 15,060 87% 452k $6.8M (exactly $6,772,482) Telltale
Batman: The Enemy Within - The Telltale Series older $14.99 8,877 92% 266k $4.0M (exactly $3,991,987) Telltale
UuultraC older $34.99 229 98% 6.9k $240k (exactly $240,381) ADELTA
X-Angels older $10.99 614 89% 18k $202k (exactly $202,436) Barance Studio
Meteor World Actor: Badge & Dagger older $17.99 355 88% 11k $192k (exactly $191,593) Heliodor
Invincible Presents: Atom Eve older $9.99 550 96% 17k $165k (exactly $164,835) Terrible Posture Games
Cho Dengeki Stryker All Ages Version older $34.99 104 92% 3.1k $109k (exactly $109,169) OVERDRIVE
Glowing Stones : Heroes' Awakening · EA older $11.99 259 91% 7.8k $93k (exactly $93,162) MoonLightDevCorp
Villain's Legacy $9.99 294 82% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Mad scientist lab
SACRIFICE VILLAINS $19.99 130 83% 3.9k $78k (exactly $77,961) CLOCKUP
Origin Story - Season 1 $12.99 173 93% 5.2k $67k (exactly $67,418) JDOR
Nova Hearts $19.99 84 67% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Lightbulb Crew
Kinky Cosplay Heroes $19.99 35 77% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,990) Sexy Hentai Games Factory
The Magical girl Childhood friend lives Next Door $9.99 39 82% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Waving.Inc
Destiny Star Girlfriend 2 $14.99 25 92% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) mirai
Destiny Star Girlfriend 3 $14.99 25 96% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) mirai
Criminally Yours $4.99 75 92% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Meant to Bee Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.