Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Steampunk

Of 21 developers who shipped a Steampunk Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1005 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 33 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $0 → $19k → $2.1k → $12k → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,887)
Top 5% $631k (exactly $631,042)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 59
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Point & Click
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,585 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles older $39.99 5,113 93% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Detective Girl of the Steam City older $14.99 1,894 91% 57k $852k (exactly $851,732) Clymenia
Syberia - Remastered $29.99 724 70% 22k $651k (exactly $651,383) Virtuallyz Gaming, Microids Studio Paris
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
80 Days older $12.99 1,174 91% 35k $458k (exactly $457,508) inkle Ltd, Cape Guy Ltd
Steam Prison older $34.99 388 81% 12k $407k (exactly $407,284) HuneX
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Clockwork Tales: Of Glass and Ink older $14.99 637 90% 19k $286k (exactly $286,459) Artifex Mundi
Gahkthun of the Golden Lightning Steam Edition older $39.99 80 86% 2.4k $96k (exactly $95,976) Liar-soft
Leviathan: The Last Day of the Decade older $4.99 526 78% 16k $79k (exactly $78,742) Lostwood
Lust Manor: Leona’s Secret $9.99 89 78% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,673) Kinky Business Group
Steam Prison -Beyond the Steam- $34.99 22 50% 660 $23k (exactly $23,093) HuneX
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
Scarlet Defiance: The Wall Between Us $14.99 42 76% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Vmmersion Studios
MAELSTROM LEGACY: The Tesla Mystery $10.99 36 69% 1.1k $12k (exactly $11,869) Wistfulware
VOID SOUL $25.99 7 85% 210 $5.5k (exactly $5,458) OWLOGUE Co., Ltd.
Biohazardous Love ☣️ $5.99 25 88% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) TheBigO Games
BROKEN God Awakening $4.99 25 76% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) lamb of game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.