Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Spelling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spelling Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Spelling

Only 9 developers shipped a Spelling Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Paper Bride 6 Nightmare, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $4.0k against a market of $120. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 34.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 680% on the market, 8 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Spelling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $64k → $390 → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Spelling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,047)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,979)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,589)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 31
Announced 8
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 680% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Spelling
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Visual Novel, Spelling
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 1,901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
你已经猜到结局了吗 older $7.99 388 92% 12k $93k (exactly $93,004) 橘音
Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Pumpernickel Studio
The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2 $9.99 70 91% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) 橘音
Spiritual Bond ~Breaking the curse, Intertwining fates~ $5.99 98 82% 2.9k $18k (exactly $17,611) MONRA
HeatStroke older $1.99 199 89% 6.0k $12k (exactly $11,880) Talia bob Mair, Matt Garnett, Braden Ba… (Talia bob Mair, Matt Garnett, Braden Banning)
LA FORET DE PAGO : LA VENGEANCE DU DRAGON older $5.99 27 96% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Futurtech
Love and Enchants older $11.99 13 53% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Schneeritter Studios
PAGO FOREST: DRAGON'S REVENGE older $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Futurtech
Truck Town: Kids and Toddlers Driving Game $14.99 9 77% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Crater Studios
One More Question $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) OrangeSounds
Estrella Quest $12.99 1 0% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Estrella Dev
VerbMeister $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Alpen Adria Forge
Nippon Dojo $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Game Over Productions Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.