Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Souls-like?

Souls-like + Romance

Only 10 developers shipped a Romance Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Dark Queen of Mortholme, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $35k, ×23 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $610k, ×407 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 23.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 16 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $290k → $6.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $6.5k (exactly $6,475)
Median $35k (exactly $34,783)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,022)
Top 5% $610k (exactly $610,028)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 41
Announced 16
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 83% positive over 4,819 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.5k, median $35k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $610k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.5k. 2 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 19 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GreedFall older $34.99 18,460 75% 554k $19M (exactly $19,377,462) Spiders
NEKOPARA Vol. 1 older $9.99 23,405 95% 702k $7.0M (exactly $7,014,478) NEKO WORKs
YOU and ME and HER: A Love Story older $29.99 6,033 95% 181k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,890) Nitroplus
NEKOPARA Vol. 3 older $9.99 11,153 96% 335k $3.3M (exactly $3,342,554) NEKO WORKs
NEKOPARA Vol. 2 older $9.99 11,055 97% 332k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,184) NEKO WORKs
VR Kanojo / VRカノジョ older $49.99 1,767 76% 53k $2.6M (exactly $2,649,970) ILLUSION
Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- The Prophecy of the Throne older $59.99 1,042 87% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,875,287) Chime Corporation
Hooked on You: A Dead by Daylight Dating Sim™ older $9.99 6,039 90% 181k $1.8M (exactly $1,809,888) Psyop
NEKOPARA Vol. 0 older $2.99 14,705 94% 441k $1.3M (exactly $1,319,038) NEKO WORKs
Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ older $7.99 4,272 92% 128k $1.0M (exactly $1,023,998) the last evil wizard, Nupu Neko Dev
The Dark Queen of Mortholme $4.99 4,075 83% 122k $610k (exactly $610,028) Mosu
VR-Kanojo $54.99 176 63% 5.3k $290k (exactly $290,347) ILLUMINATION
Soul Mates · EA $12.99 95 97% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) Sad Panda Studios
Sex With Friends $4.99 236 94% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,329) B-Team
Big Beautiful Women: Giantess Dating Action $19.99 58 93% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) Rakuen Soft
Beauty’s Target $8.99 126 69% 3.8k $34k (exactly $33,982) Beauty’s Target
Journey of the Garden Rose $11.99 18 77% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Renegade Sector Games
Plastic Lust $3.99 29 79% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Umbrelloid
Waifu Simulator $4.99 6 50% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Slippy Floor
Zong $59.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 北京祐力东方科技有限公司

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.