Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics Souls-like?

Souls-like + Turn-Based Tactics

Only 12 developers shipped a Turn-Based Tactics Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLACK SOULS II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $88k, ×59 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1478 the market median. Revenue is up 2540% on the market; 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 2540% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $23k → $298 → $6.0k → $736k → $179 (still earning) → $88k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Median $88k (exactly $88,137)
Top 25% $772k (exactly $771,530)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 36
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2540% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 10,832 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $88k, 1 in 4 over $770k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced
  12. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 19 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Isekai Janken Hero older $9.99 537 83% 16k $161k (exactly $160,939) BFS
Rugby League Team Manager 3 older $39.99 75 80% 2.3k $90k (exactly $89,978) Alternative Software Ltd
Moon Corona · EA $13.99 210 82% 6.3k $88k (exactly $88,137) 不倒龙工作室, Budaolong Studio
勇者与亡灵之都 older $6.99 356 93% 11k $75k (exactly $74,653) grade
Grim Quest - Old School RPG older $5.99 151 91% 4.5k $27k (exactly $27,135) Monomyth
Ashes of Morgravia $11.99 43 67% 1.3k $15k (exactly $15,467) background blur.
Go $7.99 25 72% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Popoko VM Games
Bluff Roulette $4.99 17 82% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) OFF LAB
Chinese Chess - Xiangqi $7.99 8 100% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Popoko VM Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.