Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Souls-like?

Souls-like + War

Only 8 developers shipped a War Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Rogue Prince of Persia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450k, ×301 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $12k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×1437 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 300.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 22 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60k → $330 → $548k
Outcomes for Souls-like + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $12k (exactly $11,985)
Median $451k (exactly $450,570)
Top 25% $864k (exactly $863,874)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,152,982)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 30
Announced 22
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 28,016 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $12k, median $450k, 1 in 4 over $860k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $12k. 22 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced
  12. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 19 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
The Rogue Prince of Persia $29.99 2,393 89% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,982) Evil Empire
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
Moros Protocol $24.99 731 81% 22k $548k (exactly $548,031) Pixel Reign
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
No Place for Bravery older $19.99 119 66% 3.6k $71k (exactly $71,364) Glitch Factory
Swords Fantasy: Battlefield · EA older $11.99 167 78% 5.0k $60k (exactly $60,070) Quacky Games
Bloodless older $14.99 133 81% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Point N' Sheep
SEX with HITLER: WW2 older $3.99 291 76% 8.7k $35k (exactly $34,833) Adolf Games
Dead Wells: The Devil Fragment $14.99 40 70% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Echo7Project
Bloodface $7.99 50 70% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,985) Iron Forge Games
Brighter Days $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Narwhale
Outlanders: Hunt and Survive $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) DIG Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.