Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Souls-like?

Souls-like + Simulation

Of 50 developers who shipped a Simulation Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×3.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×168 the market median. Revenue is up 1190% on the market; 51 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1190% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $2.6k → $2.4k → $2.3k → $2.3k → $27k → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $891 (exactly $891)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,821)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $37,022)
Top 5% $251k (exactly $251,496)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 153
Announced 51
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1190% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 12,452 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy older $12.99 15,119 69% 454k $5.9M (exactly $5,891,874) Inusuku
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Legendary Tales older $39.99 2,711 76% 81k $3.3M (exactly $3,252,387) Urban Wolf Games Inc.
VR Kanojo / VRカノジョ older $49.99 1,767 76% 53k $2.6M (exactly $2,649,970) ILLUSION
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Duel Corp. · EA $24.99 1,251 71% 38k $938k (exactly $937,875) Dreameffect Entertainment
Skoof Simulator older $29.99 935 83% 28k $841k (exactly $841,220) PropilGames
CUCKOLD SIMULATOR: Life as a Beta Male Cuck $4.99 1,680 93% 50k $251k (exactly $251,496) Team SNEED
Your Mom $1.99 4,157 95% 125k $248k (exactly $248,173) Mom Game
The Axis Unseen $24.99 309 75% 9.3k $232k (exactly $231,657) Just Purkey Games
Escape from Yandere $4.99 1,335 75% 40k $200k (exactly $199,850) VorhGames
Strange Seed $14.99 431 86% 13k $194k (exactly $193,821) Chronicle Games Ltd
Frankie's FunClub $14.99 236 65% 7.1k $106k (exactly $106,129) LOVEBITES
Lumberjacked $4.99 647 83% 19k $97k (exactly $96,856) Inner Realm Studios, Dumb Duck Games
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.