Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Souls-like?

Souls-like + Shoot 'Em Up

Only 14 developers shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ButtKnight, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×260 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $5.7k → $3.1k → $3.6k → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,146)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,638)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $389,310)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 53
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Shoot 'Em Up
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 2,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $6.6k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cuphead older $19.99 198,790 96% 6.0M $119M (exactly $119,214,363) Studio MDHR Entertainment Inc.
Hunt Down The Freeman older $9.99 3,785 54% 114k $1.1M (exactly $1,134,364) Royal Rudius Entertainment
Death in the Water 2 older $14.99 1,734 83% 52k $780k (exactly $779,780) Lighthouse Games Studio
Touhou Kanjuden ~ Legacy of Lunatic Kingdom. older $14.99 1,516 98% 45k $682k (exactly $681,745) 上海アリス幻樂団
ButtKnight $9.99 1,299 91% 39k $389k (exactly $389,310) Goblin Stew, Critical Bliss
Neckbreak older $15.99 415 79% 12k $199k (exactly $199,076) MGP Studios, Solid9 Studio
FISH · EA $9.99 583 94% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) dmcaguy
Savant - Ascent REMIX older $9.99 330 92% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,901) D-Pad Studio
ONE BTN BOSSES older $11.99 165 87% 5.0k $59k (exactly $59,350) Midnight Munchies
Guardians of the Ashes older $2.99 451 74% 14k $40k (exactly $40,455) Mature Games
ODDRooM $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) TEAM ODD
Great Tough Bikini 6 $2.99 74 70% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) nStarcube
Duck Paradox $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Magic Games
Crab Attack $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Crab Attack Games
Commander Tiberius Troubleson $6.99 15 100% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Jos_a.b
Dump of the Dead X $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Drop_Dead_Fred
Dracs After Dusk $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) OliveHillStudios
Mortal Mythos: Island of Fairies $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Timur Bondar

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.