Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Science
Should I ship a Science Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Science
Of 22 developers who shipped a Science Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×119 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $748 (exactly $748) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,774) |
| Top 25% | $9.7k (exactly $9,684) |
| Top 5% | $57k (exactly $56,643) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 91 |
| Announced | 33 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Science
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,509 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $750. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
STEINS;GATE 0 2018 · $8.3M 
CHAOS;CHILD 2019 · $2.9M 
STEINS;GATE ELITE 2019 · $2.9M 
Lucy -The Eternity She Wished For- 2016 · $2.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | STEINS;GATE 0 | older | $34.99 | 7,916 95% | 237k | $8.3M (exactly $8,309,425) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | CHAOS;CHILD | older | $24.99 | 3,866 93% | 116k | $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | STEINS;GATE ELITE | older | $59.99 | 1,584 90% | 48k | $2.9M (exactly $2,850,725) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Lucy -The Eternity She Wished For- | older | $9.99 | 7,777 95% | 233k | $2.3M (exactly $2,330,767) | Modern Visual Arts Laboratory, SEO INSE… (Modern Visual Arts Laboratory, SEO INSEOK) |
 | STEINS;GATE: Linear Bounded Phenogram | older | $59.99 | 1,278 96% | 38k | $2.3M (exactly $2,300,017) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | CHAOS;HEAD NOAH | older | $24.99 | 1,997 88% | 60k | $1.5M (exactly $1,497,151) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | Cyanotype Daydream -The Girl Who Dreamed the World- | older | $39.99 | 710 88% | 21k | $852k (exactly $851,787) | Laplacian |
 | ROBOTICS;NOTES ELITE | older | $34.99 | 698 90% | 21k | $733k (exactly $732,691) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | SEX Hospital 💦 | $9.99 | 189 69% | 5.7k | $57k (exactly $56,643) | Lust Desires 🖤 | |
 | My Furry Protogen 3 🐾 | $4.99 | 221 95% | 6.6k | $33k (exactly $33,084) | Dirty Fox Games | |
 | My Protogen Engineer ⚙️ | $4.99 | 213 97% | 6.4k | $32k (exactly $31,886) | Dirty Fox Games | |
 | TELLURICENE | $11.99 | 61 100% | 1.8k | $22k (exactly $21,942) | DEADline Studios | |
 | The Libido Enigma | $12.99 | 46 84% | 1.4k | $18k (exactly $17,926) | broiler_x | |
 | Advent: Dawn | $16.99 | 19 89% | 570 | $9.7k (exactly $9,684) | Spire Games | |
 | Space Sex Lab 🚀 | $5.99 | 53 84% | 1.6k | $9.5k (exactly $9,524) | TheBigO Games | |
 | Snowfall's Mystery | $2.99 | 99 86% | 3.0k | $8.9k (exactly $8,880) | Sempiternal Rain | |
 | Forgotten 23 | $12.99 | 14 92% | 420 | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) | KovalGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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