Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Sokoban?

Sokoban + Science

Only 10 developers shipped a Science Sokoban in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lab Rat, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $150 against a market of $480. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 9 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $1.4k → $1.7k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $218,890)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 9
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Sokoban
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 6 games average 97% positive over 464 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + FuturisticLong shot21 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sokobond older $14.99 547 93% 16k $246k (exactly $245,986) Alan Hazelden, Lee Shang Lun
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
Sokobond Express older $14.99 84 90% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) José Hernández, Draknek & Friends
4D Intuition $14.99 67 100% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Yu Gu (yugu233)
HYNPYTOL older $14.99 64 98% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) base0
ALAN-13 Reformation older $15.99 34 82% 1.0k $16k (exactly $16,310) Viktor Kovács
SuperPosition $7.99 16 100% 480 $3.8k (exactly $3,835) Kimel
H+H=H2 $3.99 14 92% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) Feishiko
Helper Cat older $0.99 51 82% 1.5k $1.5k (exactly $1,515) Giant Head
RYBot older $5.99 8 100% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) Pinethree Interactive
Lab Escape: Box Puzzle Game $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pointless Games AB
24 Grab Points $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Meta Entropy Culture
Agent Higgs 2 · EA $10.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) TestTubeGames
Frip and Froop's Logical Labyrinth DX $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Wayward Thoughts Interactive
ModernFactory $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) LN
2187 $2.50 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Lavie Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.