Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Sokoban?

Sokoban + Futuristic

Of 21 developers who shipped a Futuristic Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $36k, ×76 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 20 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 20 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $0 → $2.4k → $8.4k → $119 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 5% $36k (exactly $36,000)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 48
Announced 20
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Sokoban; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Logic, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Minimalist, Abstract, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $180, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $36k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  12. + TacticalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.5k · 12 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC
4D Intuition $14.99 67 100% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Yu Gu (yugu233)
The Electrifying Incident: A Monster Mini-Expedition $4.99 169 93% 5.1k $25k (exactly $25,299) Draknek and Friends
Parcel older $4.99 140 84% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) Polar Bunny Ltd
Frame - Portals on Steroids older $16.99 35 91% 1.1k $18k (exactly $17,840) MechanicsDriven
ALAN-13 Reformation older $15.99 34 82% 1.0k $16k (exactly $16,310) Viktor Kovács
Don't Touch this Button! older $3.99 88 93% 2.6k $11k (exactly $10,534) 9 Eyes Game Studio
Unlock The King older $0.99 329 95% 9.9k $9.8k (exactly $9,771) Minimol Games
4X4 older $4.99 60 91% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Marimori
Vextorial $8.99 31 96% 930 $8.4k (exactly $8,361) VEXT GAMES
Move That Box $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Crashykk Games
Axona $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Onat Oke
A Thread Between $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Sluice Gate Games
胞-胞实验室 Cell-Cell Lab $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) BABA Games, Yun Fan Studio
LABYBAN $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Studio Gravenoire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.