Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Sci-fi
Should I ship a Sci-fi Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Sci-fi
Of 332 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 479 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×530 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 479 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,112) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $24,161) |
| Top 5% | $252k (exactly $251,748) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 332 |
| Released games | 1,085 |
| Announced | 479 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Sci-fi
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 19,463 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 204 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 479 games are announced against 178 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Senren＊Banka 2020 · $35M 
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M 
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action 2016 · $15M 
ATRI -My Dear Moments- 2020 · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
| | VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action | older | $14.99 | 33,838 97% | 1.0M | $15M (exactly $15,216,949) | Sukeban Games |
| | ATRI -My Dear Moments- | older | $20.99 | 21,411 98% | 642k | $13M (exactly $13,482,507) | Frontwing, 枕 |
 | The Hundred Line -Last Defense Academy- | $59.99 | 6,893 88% | 207k | $12M (exactly $12,405,332) | Too Kyo Games, Media.Vision Inc. | |
 | Super Robot Wars 30 | older | $59.99 | 5,608 85% | 168k | $10M (exactly $10,092,718) | Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc. |
 | Tales from the Borderlands | older | $19.99 | 15,101 93% | 453k | $9.1M (exactly $9,056,070) | Telltale Games |
 | STEINS;GATE 0 | older | $34.99 | 7,916 95% | 237k | $8.3M (exactly $8,309,425) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition | older | $24.99 | 8,722 96% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) | SIGONO INC. |
 | Love is All Around 2 | $9.99 | 3,749 83% | 112k | $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) | intiny | |
 | STEINS;GATE RE:BOOT | $59.99 | 594 88% | 18k | $1.1M (exactly $1,069,022) | MAGES. Inc. | |
 | SHUTEN ORDER | $49.99 | 712 80% | 21k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,786) | Neilo Inc. | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH | $13.99 | 2,324 90% | 70k | $975k (exactly $975,383) | U0U Games | |
 | In Falsus | $39.99 | 788 89% | 24k | $945k (exactly $945,364) | lowiro | |
 | Kemono Teatime | $12.99 | 1,617 95% | 49k | $630k (exactly $630,145) | Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU | |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Whispers from the Star | $9.99 | 1,662 80% | 50k | $498k (exactly $498,101) | Anuttacon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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