Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Souls-like?

Souls-like + Sci-fi

Of 64 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×1570 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 116 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $10k → $386 → $898 → $3.6k → $3.0k → $1.0k (still earning) → $8.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,976)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 178
Announced 116
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Third Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 51,313 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga older $49.99 38,294 90% 1.1M $57M (exactly $57,429,512) TT Games
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Bright Memory: Infinite older $19.99 36,229 91% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,726,531) FYQD-Studio
BIOMUTANT older $39.99 13,169 67% 395k $16M (exactly $15,798,849) Experiment 101
Hyper Light Drifter older $19.99 15,548 93% 466k $9.3M (exactly $9,324,136) Heart Machine
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Mohrta $19.99 1,482 91% 44k $889k (exactly $888,755) Scumhead, Osiol
Morbid Metal · EA $17.99 1,555 81% 47k $839k (exactly $839,233) SCREEN JUICE
Meta Ghost: Breaking Show $17.99 1,497 72% 45k $808k (exactly $807,931) Scarecrow Studio
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Moros Protocol $24.99 731 81% 22k $548k (exactly $548,031) Pixel Reign

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.