Do I ship it?

GamesSolitaireSolitaire + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Solitaire game?

Solitaire + Sci-fi

Of 23 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Solitaire game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1245% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Solitaire + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $119 → $150 → $2.5k → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Solitaire + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $96k (exactly $95,786)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 56
Announced 13
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1245% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Solitaire; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Card Battler
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $150, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. All of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Solitaire with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.3k · 9 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $2.3k · 3 announced
  3. + ManagementFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 17 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  5. + MahjongFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 6 announced
  6. + RomanceFair11 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  7. + CraftingFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationFair56 devs · median $718 · 46 announced
  9. + FantasyFair48 devs · median $479 · 39 announced
  10. + TacticalFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  11. + SportsFair14 devs · median $479 · 5 announced
  12. + Turn-Based CombatFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 77 pairs on the Solitaire page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
One Turn Kill $7.99 1,478 95% 44k $354k (exactly $354,277) DenDen
The Solitaire Conspiracy older $11.99 742 89% 22k $267k (exactly $266,897) Bithell Games
Star Trek: Starfleet Command Gold Edition older $19.99 211 60% 6.3k $127k (exactly $126,537) Interplay Entertainment Corp.
U.V.S. Nirmana $14.99 213 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $95,786) Coincidence
Factory Planner · EA $7.99 385 70% 12k $92k (exactly $92,284) Lebleby Games
Photogenic Minds : Identity older $19.99 89 88% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) 727 Not Hound
GLASS2 older $3.99 204 76% 6.1k $24k (exactly $24,419) TeamSnowball
Myha: Return to the Lost Island older $14.99 45 75% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Denis Martin, Simon Says: Play!
The Lab - Escape Room older $9.99 48 79% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) Flat Cat Games
The Answer Is 42 older $1.99 138 95% 4.1k $8.2k (exactly $8,239) Mens Sana Interactive
Negative Space $7.99 20 100% 600 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Tier 87 Games
Picaro $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Nightforge Studios
Xenogen $7.49 4 100% 120 $899 (exactly $899) Sylph
Pod Jam $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) Error 300
Disintegral $11.99 2 100% 60 $719 (exactly $719) Will Sykes Games
XenoCard $3.99 4 75% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Hanging Hand
Magical Frontline $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) ima shouganai

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.