Do I ship it?

GamesSolitaireSolitaire + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Solitaire game?

Solitaire + Female Protagonist

Only 9 developers shipped a Female-Led Solitaire game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, One Turn Kill, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×6.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Solitaire + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $327 → $3.3k → $9.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Solitaire + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,880)
Top 5% $354k (exactly $354,277)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 47
Announced 9
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Solitaire
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,608 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Solitaire with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $2.3k · 3 announced
  2. + ManagementFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 17 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  4. + MahjongFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 6 announced
  5. + RomanceFair11 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  6. + CraftingFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  7. + SimulationFair56 devs · median $718 · 46 announced
  8. + FantasyFair48 devs · median $479 · 39 announced
  9. + TacticalFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  10. + SportsFair14 devs · median $479 · 5 announced
  11. + Turn-Based CombatFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  12. + Card BattlerLong shot77 devs · median $299 · 79 announced

All 77 pairs on the Solitaire page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
One Turn Kill $7.99 1,478 95% 44k $354k (exactly $354,277) DenDen
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Regency Solitaire older $11.99 559 96% 17k $201k (exactly $201,072) Grey Alien Games
Picross Fairytale - nonogram: Red Riding Hood secret older $14.99 235 73% 7.1k $106k (exactly $105,680) Somer Games
Regency Solitaire II older $14.99 210 97% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Grey Alien Games
Alice's Patchworks 2 older $14.99 196 83% 5.9k $88k (exactly $88,141) Creobit
Shadowhand Solitaire $13.99 64 90% 1.9k $27k (exactly $26,861) Grey Alien Games
Picross Fairytale: Legend of the Mermaid older $14.99 48 52% 1.4k $22k (exactly $21,586) Somer Games
Asian Riddles older $14.99 40 65% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Creobit
Dissembler older $4.99 110 90% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,467) Ian MacLarty
Grime&Gold $4.99 66 95% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) Pemdora, Zakku, Spartaqui
Avalon Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $14.99 11 90% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Anawiki Games
Card Rogue $4.99 22 63% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Game Tsukuru Kun
CharmEdge Deck $2.99 28 92% 840 $2.5k (exactly $2,512) ChuQingHun
Girlfriend Strip Blackjack $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) AsianGFModels.com
Mahjong House: Challenge All Achievements $0.99 6 100% 180 $178 (exactly $178) TMG
Fokkland · EA $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) GearheadFoxGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.