Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Sokoban?

Sokoban + Sci-fi

Of 35 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 25 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.7k → $839 → $239 → $898 → $599 → $120 (still earning) → $130 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $73,163)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 90
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Sokoban; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Grid-Based Movement, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 857 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + FuturisticLong shot21 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
Linelith older $2.99 1,438 98% 43k $129k (exactly $128,989) Patrick Traynor
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
Toroban $20.00 60 86% 1.8k $36k (exactly $36,000) Hebert Games LLC
The Electrifying Incident: A Monster Mini-Expedition $4.99 169 93% 5.1k $25k (exactly $25,299) Draknek and Friends
Parcel older $4.99 140 84% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) Polar Bunny Ltd
ALAN-13 Reformation older $15.99 34 82% 1.0k $16k (exactly $16,310) Viktor Kovács
Shrink Rooms $14.99 34 91% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Mat-Rix, Pone Games
Dr. Kobushi's Labyrinthine Laboratory older $9.99 50 94% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Symbolic Software
Pygmalion · EA older $4.99 99 90% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,820) CandLE
Hazard Pay $16.99 24 100% 720 $12k (exactly $12,233) Smitner Studio
Signal Maze $14.99 24 95% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) theArkitect
Karakurium $12.99 8 100% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) Karaku Lab
Spacecaps $4.99 20 95% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Artless Games
CLONY $2.99 31 100% 930 $2.8k (exactly $2,781) YORUROJI

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.