Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Sandbox

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sandbox Souls-like?

Souls-like + Sandbox

Of 24 developers who shipped a Sandbox Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $22k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1092 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 46 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 46 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Sandbox
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.8k → $578 → $57k → $1.1k → $480k → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Sandbox: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,129)
Median $22k (exactly $21,593)
Top 25% $480k (exactly $480,280)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 68
Announced 46
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Sandbox; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 29,730 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $22k, 1 in 4 over $480k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grounded older $39.99 75,755 90% 2.3M $91M (exactly $90,883,274) Obsidian Entertainment
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
コイカツ! / Koikatsu Party older $59.99 5,298 91% 159k $9.5M (exactly $9,534,811) ILLUSION
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms $34.99 1,559 72% 47k $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) Gamera Interactive
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
Duel Corp. · EA $24.99 1,251 71% 38k $938k (exactly $937,875) Dreameffect Entertainment
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Devil Spire Falls · EA $14.99 1,068 94% 32k $480k (exactly $480,280) Ithiro Sumi
Angry Birds VR: Isle of Pigs older $19.99 318 89% 9.5k $191k (exactly $190,705) Resolution Games
ENDALOR · EA $19.99 256 71% 7.7k $154k (exactly $153,523) Diorite Games
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Elder Legacy: Survival · EA $9.99 189 62% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Honor Games
DragonRoad $19.98 82 91% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,151) XuJie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.