Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Romance
Should I ship a Romance Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Romance
Of 1,253 developers who shipped a Romance Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,550 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×54 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×2571 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,550 games are announced against 748 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.5k (exactly $1,500) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.5k (exactly $6,469) |
| Top 25% | $36k (exactly $35,970) |
| Top 5% | $306k (exactly $305,952) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,253 |
| Released games | 4,813 |
| Announced | 1,550 |
| Effort | 2 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Romance
- effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Dating Sim, Adventure, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 259,528 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 860 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,550 games are announced against 748 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Dispatch 2025 · $157M 
Senren＊Banka 2020 · $35M 
STEINS;GATE 2016 · $23M 
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M 
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty 2024 · $15M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
| | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
| | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
| | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
| | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | Doki Doki Literature Club Plus! | older | $14.99 | 30,148 97% | 904k | $14M (exactly $13,557,556) | Team Salvato |
 | ATRI -My Dear Moments- | older | $20.99 | 21,411 98% | 642k | $13M (exactly $13,482,507) | Frontwing, 枕 |
 | CLANNAD | older | $44.99 | 9,908 98% | 297k | $13M (exactly $13,372,828) | VisualArts/Key |
 | Love Is All Around | older | $9.99 | 36,203 93% | 1.1M | $11M (exactly $10,850,039) | intiny |
 | 魔女的夜宴 | older | $34.99 | 9,664 98% | 290k | $10M (exactly $10,144,301) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Date Everything! | $29.99 | 6,629 93% | 199k | $6.0M (exactly $5,964,111) | Sassy Chap Games | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | FEMBOY FUTA HOUSE | $14.99 | 4,131 89% | 124k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,711) | IT'S A TRAP | |
 | Sovereign Tower | $19.99 | 3,087 93% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) | WILD WITS GAMES | |
 | Summer Pockets REFLECTION BLUE | $49.99 | 1,231 91% | 37k | $1.8M (exactly $1,846,131) | VISUAL ARTS/Key |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.