Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Romance

Of 42 developers who shipped a Romance Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2191 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 71 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 71 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $1.3k → $21k → $22k → $2.5k → $19k → $6.3k (still earning) → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,355)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,792)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 143
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, JRPG, Party-Based RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 55,389 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen older $59.99 1,328 93% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) AQUAPLUS
The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki older $49.99 1,316 91% 39k $2.0M (exactly $1,973,605) Nihon Falcom
Evenicle older $44.99 1,225 92% 37k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,382) Alicesoft
The Arrogant Kaiju Princess and The Detective Servant older $14.99 3,468 96% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,559,560) ARTcelerator, PantyParrot
The Legend of Heroes: Kuro no Kiseki Ⅱ -CRIMSON SiN- older $59.99 789 76% 24k $1.4M (exactly $1,419,963) Nihon Falcom
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- $57.99 765 77% 23k $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) Nihon Falcom
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter $59.99 171 97% 5.1k $308k (exactly $307,749) Nihon Falcom
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.