Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Souls-like?

Souls-like + Roguelite

Of 112 developers who shipped a Roguelite Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 166 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×3.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1891 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 166 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 166 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $3.6k → $6.3k → $16k → $2.7k → $9.6k → $4.5k (still earning) → $2.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $182k (exactly $181,665)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 258
Announced 166
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Roguelite; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 293,166 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 7 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 166 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M Dead Cells 2018 · $117M Hades II 2025 · $103M Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021 · $30M Witchfire 2024 · EA · $21M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
NECROPOLIS: BRUTAL EDITION older $29.99 3,696 63% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,325,291) Harebrained Schemes
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
The Rogue Prince of Persia $29.99 2,393 89% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,982) Evil Empire
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.