Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Deckbuilder Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 164 developers who shipped a Roguelike Deckbuilder Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 259 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×584 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 259 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 259 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $46k → $12k → $10k → $30k → $7.8k → $6.5k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 164
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,639)
Top 5% $367k (exactly $366,708)
Developers, 2 yr 164
Released games 285
Announced 259
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 24,782 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 259 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
Roguebook older $24.99 3,446 84% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,583,466) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Cubic Cosmos $12.99 941 92% 28k $367k (exactly $366,708) Inkstone Atelier
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.