Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Roguelike

Of 642 developers who shipped a Roguelike Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,092 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×329 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 1,092 games are announced against 425 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 1,092 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 642
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $7.2k → $3.8k → $4.3k → $6.0k → $3.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 642
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,345)
Top 5% $206k (exactly $206,412)
Developers, 2 yr 642
Released games 1,224
Announced 1,092
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 27,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 249 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,092 games are announced against 425 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Into the Breach older $14.99 19,000 94% 570k $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) Subset Games
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.