Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Souls-like?

Souls-like + Roguelike

Of 110 developers who shipped a Roguelike Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 163 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1891 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 163 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 163 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $2.0k → $3.3k → $5.7k → $4.9k → $6.0k → $2.4k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,794)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $137,331)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 274
Announced 163
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Roguelike; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Action, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 293,076 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 163 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN 2025 · $155M Dead Cells 2018 · $117M Hades II 2025 · $103M Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021 · $30M Sifu 2023 · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Hades II $29.99 114,419 95% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,942,774) Supergiant Games
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
Sifu older $39.99 21,620 92% 649k $26M (exactly $25,937,514) Sloclap
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Exanima · EA older $14.99 12,684 80% 381k $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) Bare Mettle Entertainment
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
SWORN $24.99 3,779 80% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Windwalk Games
The Rogue Prince of Persia $29.99 2,393 89% 72k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,982) Evil Empire
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Crimson Moon $19.99 2,760 59% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,655,172) ProbablyMonsters
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.