Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Sokoban?

Sokoban + Robots

Only 17 developers shipped a Robot Sokoban in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lab Rat, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $150 → $210 → $120 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $218,890)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 49
Announced 13
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sokoban; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 9 games average 97% positive over 391 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + FuturisticLong shot21 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lab Rat $19.99 365 97% 11k $219k (exactly $218,890) Chump Squad
Death Squared older $14.99 471 90% 14k $212k (exactly $211,809) SMG Studio
ALAN-13 Reformation older $15.99 34 82% 1.0k $16k (exactly $16,310) Viktor Kovács
Dr. Kobushi's Labyrinthine Laboratory older $9.99 50 94% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Symbolic Software
Pygmalion · EA older $4.99 99 90% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,820) CandLE
Bomb Club Deluxe older $7.99 47 100% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,266) Antoine Latour
4X4 older $4.99 60 91% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Marimori
Blackshift older $7.99 26 92% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Robin Allen
Super Retro BoxBot older $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Joseph Holliday
TENDY: Robot Gardener older $3.99 35 91% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) Michael Mato, TJ Richardson
Karakurium $12.99 8 100% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) Karaku Lab
Roboban: Colors $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Mozos' Interactive
Verdantis $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Adam Góral
TAU-09 $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) axsys_crash
Command Reboot $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) 厦门必虎网络科技有限公司
Push Defense $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) Emerald Knight Interactive LLC
Moon Garden Optimizer $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Tristan Miller
Box Stocks $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Obscure Fruit Studios
Code My Robot Vacuum · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Umit Canbolat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.