Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Visual Novel

Of 62 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×324 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 97 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 97 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $8.5k → $2.5k → $3.1k → $599 → $1.2k → $6.6k (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 5% $154k (exactly $153,710)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 220
Announced 97
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Puzzle Platformer, Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.79 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.79 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 8,154 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Firework older $9.99 41,172 97% 1.2M $12M (exactly $12,339,248) Shiying Studio
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
OPUS: Echo of Starsong - Full Bloom Edition older $24.99 8,722 96% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,538,883) SIGONO INC.
Sanfu older $10.99 17,323 82% 520k $5.7M (exactly $5,711,393) Shiying Studio
Catherine Classic older $19.99 8,858 88% 266k $5.3M (exactly $5,312,143) ATLUS
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Paper Bride 2 Zangling Village older $9.99 1,010 91% 30k $303k (exactly $302,697) HeartBeat Plus
Lost Words: Beyond the Page older $14.99 637 94% 19k $286k (exactly $286,459) Sketchbook Developments, Fourth State,… (Sketchbook Developments, Fourth State, Sketchbook Games)
Deer & Boy $19.99 370 94% 11k $222k (exactly $221,889) Lifeline Games
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition $6.99 733 66% 22k $154k (exactly $153,710) Evil Boobs Cult
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Creepy Tale: Snow Child $11.99 248 91% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Creepy Brothers
Paper Bride 7 Lethal Bond $9.99 218 92% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,335) HeartBeat Plus
Rubbings $9.99 183 87% 5.5k $55k (exactly $54,845) 午夜说书人
Beyond the Ice Palace 2 $19.99 77 63% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) STORYBIRD Studio
Streaming ON! VTuber Training $6.99 105 65% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,018) Momentum Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.