Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Souls-like?

Souls-like + Puzzle

Of 37 developers who shipped a Puzzle Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 91 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1085 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 91 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 91 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $9.3k → $598 → $2.3k → $3.8k → $49k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,891)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 157
Announced 91
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,953 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 91 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
LEGO® Star Wars™: The Skywalker Saga older $49.99 38,294 90% 1.1M $57M (exactly $57,429,512) TT Games
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
The Wind Road older $29.99 5,920 69% 178k $5.3M (exactly $5,326,224) 甘肃嘉元数字科技有限公司
Titan Souls older $14.99 8,002 82% 240k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,499) Acid Nerve
PICO PARK older $4.99 23,751 91% 713k $3.6M (exactly $3,555,525) TECOPARK
Alabaster Dawn · EA $24.99 2,168 94% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) Radical Fish Games
Fever Meme $4.20 4,358 91% 131k $549k (exactly $549,108) Aimbok
ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY $17.99 494 79% 15k $267k (exactly $266,612) ASD Games Studio
Retrace the Light $17.99 170 85% 5.1k $92k (exactly $91,749) Xiaming Game
Tracery of Fate $19.99 129 73% 3.9k $77k (exactly $77,361) Sign Narva
Outrider Mako $17.99 121 65% 3.6k $65k (exactly $65,304) Asamado Games
GIGASWORD $14.99 108 75% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Studio Hybrid
Soul Mates · EA $12.99 95 97% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) Sad Panda Studios
Slime Heroes $29.99 31 67% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) Pancake Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.