Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Supernatural

Of 51 developers who shipped a Supernatural Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×656 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 97 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 97 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $10k → $28k → $3.6k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $150 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,730)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $311,688)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 103
Announced 97
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 8,140 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $840, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pacify older $4.99 32,921 86% 988k $4.9M (exactly $4,928,274) Shawn Hitchcock
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
Lunch Lady older $4.99 9,722 86% 292k $1.5M (exactly $1,455,383) Manic Mice
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Dark Hours $9.99 3,481 81% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,256) Piece of Cake studios
DEAD LETTER DEPT. $14.99 1,777 95% 53k $799k (exactly $799,117) Mike Monroe, Belief Engine
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Mama's Sleeping Angels $9.99 1,040 93% 31k $312k (exactly $311,688) itamu
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Remnant Records older $15.99 419 79% 13k $201k (exactly $200,994) Noctiluca Studio
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
the cabin game · EA $11.99 362 86% 11k $130k (exactly $130,211) Twisted Corridor👻
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games
Second Sun $19.99 115 69% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Grey Wolf Entertainment
Pizza Deathlivery $5.99 161 72% 4.8k $29k (exactly $28,932) Kusa Games
Horny Haunts $4.99 118 56% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Naelstrof, Raliv, BigCozyOrca, Eugene

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.