Do I ship it?

Games › Procedural Generation › Procedural Generation + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Procedural Generation Runner?

Procedural Generation + Runner

Of 72 developers who shipped a Procedural Generation Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 38 developers shipped in the last year and 83 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 83 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $657 → $987 → $210 → $59 → $281 → $30 (still earning) → $315 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $809 (exactly $809)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,632)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 284
Announced 83
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Arcade, Action, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 1,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $800, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Melody's Escape 2016 · $1.3M Phantom Abyss 2024 · $1.2M Race The Sun 2013 · $592k Trip to Vinelands 2016 · $235k Dino Run DX 2015 · $202k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Melody's Escape older $9.99 4,336 92% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,499) Icetesy
Phantom Abyss older $19.99 1,962 81% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,176,611) Team WIBY
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Trip to Vinelands older $4.99 1,572 85% 47k $235k (exactly $235,328) Walter Machado
Dino Run DX older $5.99 1,124 95% 34k $202k (exactly $201,983) Pixeljam
Buck Up And Drive! older $7.99 640 91% 19k $153k (exactly $153,408) Fábio Fontes
I Hate Running Backwards older $14.99 188 71% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Binx Games, Croteam Incubator, Croteam
Tribal Pass older $6.99 263 74% 7.9k $55k (exactly $55,151) Tribe Tea, Stas Shostak, Evgeniy Yudin,… (Tribe Tea, Stas Shostak, Evgeniy Yudin, Alexzander Protasenya, Ruslan Viter)
BEHEMOTH $3.99 412 88% 12k $49k (exactly $49,316) The Behemoth
Switchcars older $8.99 164 90% 4.9k $44k (exactly $44,231) Altfuture
BEERCRUSH $4.99 206 100% 6.2k $31k (exactly $30,838) LOWLIGHT
Stardust Skate $2.99 299 98% 9.0k $27k (exactly $26,820) VchiBan, Aetha
This Is No Cave $6.99 127 96% 3.8k $27k (exactly $26,632) monome.studio
Nebula Flow $17.99 37 97% 1.1k $20k (exactly $19,969) After Nap Games
SCHROTT: Roguelike Racer · EA $12.99 49 91% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Ivy Juice
Horse Runner DX $4.99 58 91% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Mat Makes Games
Synthwave Dream '85 $3.99 48 100% 1.4k $5.7k (exactly $5,746) LoneDev
Calm Skies: The Wingsuit Flying Experience $4.99 35 91% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Flashblack Games
✈️Velocity Wings✈️ $9.80 12 91% 360 $3.5k (exactly $3,528) ZhiFeng Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.