Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Post-apocalyptic
Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Post-apocalyptic
Of 97 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 131 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×392 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 131 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.2k (exactly $2,158) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $22,485) |
| Top 5% | $246k (exactly $245,986) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 97 |
| Released games | 299 |
| Announced | 131 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Post-apocalyptic
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, RPG
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 10,646 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 131 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M 
The Walking Dead 2012 · $24M 
ATRI -My Dear Moments- 2020 · $13M 
The Walking Dead: A New Frontier 2016 · $7.0M 
Muv-Luv Alternative 2018 · $4.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series | older | $49.99 | 36,594 96% | 1.1M | $55M (exactly $54,880,022) | Skybound Games |
| | The Walking Dead | older | $14.99 | 53,650 97% | 1.6M | $24M (exactly $24,126,405) | Telltale Games |
| | ATRI -My Dear Moments- | older | $20.99 | 21,411 98% | 642k | $13M (exactly $13,482,507) | Frontwing, 枕 |
| | The Walking Dead: A New Frontier | older | $14.99 | 15,482 83% | 464k | $7.0M (exactly $6,962,255) | Telltale Games |
| | Muv-Luv Alternative | older | $39.99 | 3,447 95% | 103k | $4.1M (exactly $4,135,366) | aNCHOR Inc. |
 | 1000xRESIST | older | $19.99 | 5,310 96% | 159k | $3.2M (exactly $3,184,407) | sunset visitor 斜陽過客 |
 | Seed of the Dead: Sweet Home | older | $29.99 | 3,006 83% | 90k | $2.7M (exactly $2,704,498) | TeamKRAMA |
 | eden* | older | $19.99 | 4,098 98% | 123k | $2.5M (exactly $2,457,571) | minori |
 | Noctuary | older | $29.99 | 2,371 94% | 71k | $2.1M (exactly $2,133,189) | Gratesca |
 | Stella of The End | older | $19.99 | 2,858 97% | 86k | $1.7M (exactly $1,713,943) | VisualArts/Key |
 | Desert Stalker | · EA | $17.99 | 3,012 95% | 90k | $1.6M (exactly $1,625,576) | Zetan |
 | SubZero | $9.99 | 2,719 92% | 82k | $815k (exactly $814,884) | Joy Media Limited | |
 | Kemono Teatime | $12.99 | 1,617 95% | 49k | $630k (exactly $630,145) | Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU | |
 | Schrödinger's Call | $17.99 | 1,124 94% | 34k | $607k (exactly $606,623) | Acrobatic Chirimenjako | |
 | Sophie: The Girl From The Zone | $14.99 | 547 87% | 16k | $246k (exactly $245,986) | DavyCroquetteGame | |
 | Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse | $19.99 | 340 77% | 10k | $204k (exactly $203,898) | EXLIX | |
 | Apocalypse with Femboy | $12.99 | 439 89% | 13k | $171k (exactly $171,078) | Pout Honey | |
 | HARDCODED | $16.99 | 282 90% | 8.5k | $144k (exactly $143,735) | Ghost Hug Games | |
 | KANADE | $12.99 | 368 82% | 11k | $143k (exactly $143,410) | Frontwing | |
 | Price of Power | $19.99 | 198 76% | 5.9k | $119k (exactly $118,741) | The Pandaman |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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