Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Post-apocalyptic

Of 44 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 165 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 165 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 25.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 165 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $9.8k → $32k → $6.7k → $42k → $719 → $42k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Median $16k (exactly $16,184)
Top 25% $287k (exactly $287,120)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 182
Announced 165
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 62,094 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 165 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Artis Impact $18.99 2,308 84% 69k $1.3M (exactly $1,314,868) Mas
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
FRONT MISSION 3: Remake $34.99 453 74% 14k $476k (exactly $475,514) MegaPixel Studio S.A.
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.