Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Souls-like?

Souls-like + Post-apocalyptic

Of 30 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×8.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×3.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $110M, ×73633 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 112 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 112 announced, ×8.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $76k → $444k → $1.1k → $15k → $6.4k → $5.4k → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Top 25% $75k (exactly $74,650)
Top 5% $110M (exactly $110,301,813)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 100
Announced 112
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 275,804 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $110M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 7 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
AI LIMIT $34.99 22,833 92% 685k $24M (exactly $23,967,800) Sense Games
BIOMUTANT older $39.99 13,169 67% 395k $16M (exactly $15,798,849) Experiment 101
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Dolls Nest $19.99 2,421 88% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,874) NITRO PLUS
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
MycoRelic · EA $14.99 166 89% 5.0k $75k (exactly $74,650) Sandy Dingo Games
Last Vanguard $14.99 77 81% 2.3k $35k (exactly $34,627) Cool Tapir Studios
KILL THE WITCH · EA $10.99 84 77% 2.5k $28k (exactly $27,695) SnakeEagle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.