Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Platformer?

Platformer + Visual Novel

Of 44 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $95k, ×201 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 59 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.6k → $1.8k → $21k → $719 → $4.2k → $3.2k → $4.9k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $653 (exactly $653)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,352)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,032)
Top 5% $95k (exactly $95,352)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 131
Announced 59
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Platformer, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 3,894 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
DEAD OR SCHOOL older $24.99 2,607 84% 78k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,468) Studio Nanafushi
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Lost Words: Beyond the Page older $14.99 637 94% 19k $286k (exactly $286,459) Sketchbook Developments, Fourth State,… (Sketchbook Developments, Fourth State, Sketchbook Games)
GOODBYE WORLD older $11.99 766 84% 23k $276k (exactly $275,530) YO FUJII
Evan's Remains older $6.99 1,099 89% 33k $230k (exactly $230,460) maitan69
Deer & Boy $19.99 370 94% 11k $222k (exactly $221,889) Lifeline Games
Smash Girls older $10.99 460 81% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 18bitStudio
Nientum - Op.ZERO · EA $19.99 159 98% 4.8k $95k (exactly $95,352) QueseraGames
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City $24.99 105 76% 3.2k $79k (exactly $78,718) Cortopia Studios
Beyond the Ice Palace 2 $19.99 77 63% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) STORYBIRD Studio
Vilde $15.99 87 74% 2.6k $42k (exactly $41,734) Chaotic Minds
Town of Zoz $19.99 50 70% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Studio Pixanoh
Forgotlings $19.99 48 79% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Throughline Games
Island Off Outer Darkness $13.99 49 100% 1.5k $21k (exactly $20,565) Zugerujk
Rhya's Crusade: The Aradia's Reavers $14.99 39 66% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Black Fortress Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.