Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Perma Death

Of 110 developers who shipped a Perma Death Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 217 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×536 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 217 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 217 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 110
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $4.2k → $13k → $2.4k → $7.0k → $7.8k → $1.4k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 110
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,213)
Top 5% $336k (exactly $336,432)
Developers, 2 yr 110
Released games 274
Announced 217
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Perma Death; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Combat, Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 9,926 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 217 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Invisible, Inc. older $19.99 5,096 91% 153k $3.1M (exactly $3,056,071) Klei Entertainment
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Bloodgrounds $19.99 561 77% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Exordium Games
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Dawncaster | The RPG Cardventure $19.99 274 81% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Wanderlost Interactive
Astral Throne $19.99 270 80% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) Zero Sun Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.