Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Turn-Based Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Strategy Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Turn-Based Strategy

Of 214 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Strategy Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 389 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $650; 1 in 20 cleared $680k, ×1091 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 389 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 389 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Turn-Based Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 214
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.8k → $8.5k → $7.2k → $3.4k → $7.0k → $2.9k → $16k (still earning) → $648 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Turn-Based Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 214
Bottom 30% $648 (exactly $648)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,178)
Top 5% $685k (exactly $685,454)
Developers, 2 yr 214
Released games 540
Announced 389
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, Turn-Based Strategy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 43,424 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $650, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $650. 8 in 10 of the 103 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 389 games are announced against 124 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Solasta: Crown of the Magister older $29.99 19,680 87% 590k $18M (exactly $17,706,096) Tactical Adventures
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
The Legend of Heroes: Trails beyond the Horizon $59.99 710 93% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,787) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Dark Deity 2 $24.99 1,583 89% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,186,775) Sword & Axe LLC
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.