Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Party-Based RPG RPG?

Party-Based RPG + RPG

Of 633 developers who shipped a Party-Based RPG RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,284 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1705 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 1,284 games are announced against 366 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 1,284 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 633
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $8.4k → $7.2k → $3.0k → $3.6k → $3.4k → $5.4k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 633
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572)
Developers, 2 yr 633
Released games 2,072
Announced 1,284
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Combat, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 334,251 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 366 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,284 games are announced against 366 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
FINAL FANTASY VII REMAKE INTERGRADE older $39.99 43,473 87% 1.3M $52M (exactly $52,154,558) Square Enix
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
FINAL FANTASY VII REBIRTH $49.99 25,363 75% 761k $38M (exactly $38,036,891) Square Enix
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.