Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Romance

Of 28 developers who shipped a Romance Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.8M, ×9364 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 53 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 53 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $11k → $1.2k → $142k → $5.3k → $9.4k
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,355)
Median $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,792)
Top 5% $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 112
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, JRPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 18,643 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.4k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.4k. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition older $29.99 6,953 81% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,255,614) BioWare
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel older $39.99 5,131 94% 154k $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) Nihon Falcom
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- $57.99 765 77% 23k $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) Nihon Falcom
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter $59.99 171 97% 5.1k $308k (exactly $307,749) Nihon Falcom
Beloved Rapture $19.99 237 82% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Rapturous Studio
Kitchen Sync: Aloha! $19.99 159 99% 4.8k $95k (exactly $95,352) Lemonpepper Games
Shujinkou $59.99 26 92% 780 $47k (exactly $46,792) Rice Games Inc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.