Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Post-apocalyptic

Of 40 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 74 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 74 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.2k → $299 → $34k → $599 → $5.3k → $10k → $3.6k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,088)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 105
Announced 74
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Character Customization, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 188,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Wasteland 3 older $39.99 17,263 84% 518k $21M (exactly $20,710,421) inXile Entertainment
LISA: The Painful older $19.99 13,129 95% 394k $7.9M (exactly $7,873,461) Dingaling Productions
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Dead Age older $14.99 4,407 83% 132k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,828) Silent Dreams
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Dead Age 2: The Zombie Survival RPG older $17.99 1,154 75% 35k $623k (exactly $622,814) Silent Dreams
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
BLUE REFLECTION Quartet $49.99 140 57% 4.2k $210k (exactly $209,958) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
MEMOLITH: Forsaken by Light $19.99 220 76% 6.6k $132k (exactly $131,934) Black Anchor
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.