Do I ship it?

Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Ninja

Only 14 developers shipped a Ninja Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Half-Demon Shinobi, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $860, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $50. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 9 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $72k → $18k → $300 → $240 → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $861 (exactly $861)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $409k (exactly $409,487)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 57
Announced 9
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,335 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $860, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS 2017 · $4.5M SENRAN KAGURA Burst Re:Newal 2019 · $2.2M SAMURAI MAIDEN 2022 · $1.2M Nightshade/百花百狼 2017 · $753k Nitroplus Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel 2016 · $634k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SENRAN KAGURA ESTIVAL VERSUS older $29.99 4,986 94% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,485,904) Tamsoft
SENRAN KAGURA Burst Re:Newal older $29.99 2,433 92% 73k $2.2M (exactly $2,188,970) Tamsoft
SAMURAI MAIDEN older $59.99 648 60% 19k $1.2M (exactly $1,166,206) SHADE Inc.
Nightshade/百花百狼 older $34.99 717 95% 22k $753k (exactly $752,635) Red Entertainment, LANTERN ROOMS
Nitroplus Blasterz: Heroines Infinite Duel older $19.99 1,058 90% 32k $634k (exactly $634,483) EXAMU
Fallen Shinobi SS. older $14.99 971 92% 29k $437k (exactly $436,659) marron☆marron
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
NinNinDays older $12.99 755 93% 23k $294k (exactly $294,224) qureate, iMel Inc.
NEKO-NIN exHeart older $9.99 847 96% 25k $254k (exactly $253,846) Whirlpool
Lkyt. older $44.99 181 95% 5.4k $244k (exactly $244,296) parade
Project: Mirror 2 $4.99 25 44% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) 430Games
Kaodi $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Outlander Co.
NEKO-NIN exHeart SPIN! LOVE+PLUS $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Whirlpool
NatsumeRyoran - Romance of Hi-Spec Yoko - $24.99 2 50% 60 $1.5k (exactly $1,499) CyberStep, Inc.
Do As I Say - Obedience to the Ninja Master $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Girl's Software
挂机修仙之我能合成功法！ $0.99 29 44% 870 $861 (exactly $861) 99 Game Studio
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon
シノビザムライ／Shinobi Samurai $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) MIZUBLUE GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.