Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Souls-like?

Souls-like + Ninja

Only 7 developers shipped a Ninja Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nioh 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×6510 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 26 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.6k → $6.1k → $72k → $9.8M → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Median $12k (exactly $11,826)
Top 25% $248k (exactly $247,676)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 42
Announced 26
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Hack and Slash
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Gore, Third Person, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 385,661 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.5k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $240k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M Nioh 3 2026 · $25M Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black $49.99 3,289 78% 99k $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SENRAN KAGURA Peach Beach Splash older $29.99 3,885 81% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,495,334) Tamsoft
SENRAN KAGURA Burst Re:Newal older $29.99 2,433 92% 73k $2.2M (exactly $2,188,970) Tamsoft
Mini Ninjas older $9.99 3,682 90% 110k $1.1M (exactly $1,103,495) IO Interactive
The Spirit of the Samurai $19.99 413 59% 12k $248k (exactly $247,676) Digital Mind Games
Loli Ninja Village $6.99 92 80% 2.8k $19k (exactly $19,292) PAON, 072 Localize
Samurai: Ronin's Path $4.99 79 56% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) GameHunters
FantasyJourney $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) XiangziArtStudio
Samurai Fighters Together $0.99 5 60% 150 $148 (exactly $148) cnsgames
THE DOJO OF MOCHIKO $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) FELICE INC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.