Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Naval

Only 15 developers shipped a Naval Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 15 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $110k → $899 → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,863)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 49
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; all of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 1,171 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: EMPIRE – Definitive Edition older $19.99 21,302 89% 639k $13M (exactly $12,774,809) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: NAPOLEON – Definitive Edition older $19.99 18,004 91% 540k $11M (exactly $10,796,999) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
SteamWorld Heist II older $29.99 2,201 93% 66k $2.0M (exactly $1,980,240) Thunderful Development
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Strategic Mind: The Pacific older $29.99 538 74% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Starni Games
Beach Invasion 1944 older $9.99 1,038 84% 31k $311k (exactly $311,089) AIx2 Games
Hasbro's BATTLESHIP older $12.49 828 82% 25k $310k (exactly $310,252) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
Sunrider Legends Tactics $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Love in Space
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Beacon Patrol $11.99 70 97% 2.1k $25k (exactly $25,179) Shapes and Dreams, BrutalHack
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
XR22-SEAGUARD $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Jean-Francois, Clifford Ondini
Old Salt $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Kneeshaw Developments, Never Board Games
Coup Ahoo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Antti Haavikko
Pirate Sagas: The Golden Age · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pirate Sagas

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.