Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Souls-like?

Souls-like + Nature

Of 31 developers who shipped a Nature Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 67 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 440% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 67 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $2.7k → $299 → $299 → $899 → $150 (still earning) → $1.5M (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 78
Announced 67
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 7,492 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MONSTER HUNTER RISE 2022 · $96M WILD HEARTS™ 2023 · $22M Kena: Bridge of Spirits 2022 · $20M Beast of Reincarnation 2026 · $7.5M Lonely Mountains: Downhill 2019 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
WILD HEARTS™ older $69.99 10,626 48% 319k $22M (exactly $22,311,412) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Dinoblade $19.99 2,420 90% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) Team Spino LLC
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
Laid-Back Camp - Virtual - Lake Motosu older $19.99 362 80% 11k $217k (exactly $217,091) Gemdrops, Inc.
Strange Seed $14.99 431 86% 13k $194k (exactly $193,821) Chronicle Games Ltd
Ex Natura: Nature Corrupted older $19.99 155 69% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Blackburne Games Yazılım A.Ş.
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Dinosaurs Dominion $9.99 32 65% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Arcupion Art
MiSa $4.99 58 65% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Hero
Journey of the Garden Rose $11.99 18 77% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Renegade Sector Games
Legend of Hiraq $8.99 8 100% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) Devai
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
Pudding Frog $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Big Head Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.