Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Mythology

Of 62 developers who shipped a Mythological Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1211 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 84 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 84 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $13k → $1.1k → $9.9k → $18k → $6.6k → $660 (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,938)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,655)
Top 5% $760k (exactly $760,339)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 195
Announced 84
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Dating Sim
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 16,221 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Yog-Sothoth’s Yard older $10.99 10,207 93% 306k $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) Bone Nail
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
GINKA older $22.99 2,678 91% 80k $1.8M (exactly $1,847,017) Frontwing
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
美女,请别影响我成仙 $10.99 3,140 93% 94k $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) 蒸汽满满工作室
Iwaihime older $29.99 864 78% 26k $777k (exactly $777,341) DMM GAMES
SIFU Kidnapped! Adventure in the Women's Kingdom $9.99 2,537 95% 76k $760k (exactly $760,339) 次元边界
Tales from Toyotoki: Arrival of the Witch (The witch of the Ihanashi) older $24.98 874 95% 26k $655k (exactly $654,976) Fragaria
Cooking Companions older $14.99 1,081 93% 32k $486k (exactly $486,126) Deer Dream Studios
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
Mirai's Midnight Stream $15.99 627 84% 19k $301k (exactly $300,772) Fox House
Seedsow Lullaby $20.99 472 97% 14k $297k (exactly $297,218) iMel Inc.
Loot Line - Season 1 $12.99 270 74% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) Candylight Studio
Mythic Love: Iberian Legends $12.99 251 92% 7.5k $98k (exactly $97,815) Platonic Games
Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Pumpernickel Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.