Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Mythology
Should I ship a Mythological Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Mythology
Of 62 developers who shipped a Mythological Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1211 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 84 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,938) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $19,655) |
| Top 5% | $760k (exactly $760,339) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 62 |
| Released games | 195 |
| Announced | 84 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Mythology
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 93% positive over 16,221 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Yog-Sothoth’s Yard | older | $10.99 | 10,207 93% | 306k | $3.4M (exactly $3,365,248) | Bone Nail |
| | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
| | GINKA | older | $22.99 | 2,678 91% | 80k | $1.8M (exactly $1,847,017) | Frontwing |
| | Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening | · EA | $17.99 | 2,458 85% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) | U-Secret Studio |
| | 美女,请别影响我成仙 | $10.99 | 3,140 93% | 94k | $1.0M (exactly $1,035,258) | 蒸汽满满工作室 | |
| | Iwaihime | older | $29.99 | 864 78% | 26k | $777k (exactly $777,341) | DMM GAMES |
| | SIFU Kidnapped! Adventure in the Women's Kingdom | $9.99 | 2,537 95% | 76k | $760k (exactly $760,339) | 次元边界 | |
| | Tales from Toyotoki: Arrival of the Witch (The witch of the Ihanashi) | older | $24.98 | 874 95% | 26k | $655k (exactly $654,976) | Fragaria |
| | Cooking Companions | older | $14.99 | 1,081 93% | 32k | $486k (exactly $486,126) | Deer Dream Studios |
| | Half-Demon Shinobi | $10.99 | 1,242 89% | 37k | $409k (exactly $409,487) | 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機 | |
| | Mirai's Midnight Stream | $15.99 | 627 84% | 19k | $301k (exactly $300,772) | Fox House | |
| | Seedsow Lullaby | $20.99 | 472 97% | 14k | $297k (exactly $297,218) | iMel Inc. | |
| | Loot Line - Season 1 | $12.99 | 270 74% | 8.1k | $105k (exactly $105,219) | Candylight Studio | |
| | Mythic Love: Iberian Legends | $12.99 | 251 92% | 7.5k | $98k (exactly $97,815) | Platonic Games | |
| | Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing | $19.99 | 107 89% | 3.2k | $64k (exactly $64,168) | Pumpernickel Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.