Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery Dungeon

Of 49 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×479 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 53 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $40k → $12k → $20k → $1.9k → $4.5k → $2.0k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,848)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,979)
Top 5% $301k (exactly $300,613)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 125
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Mystery Dungeon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 2,775 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vivid Knight older $14.99 1,635 89% 49k $735k (exactly $735,260) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
Loop Queen-Escape Dungeon 3 older $19.99 611 84% 18k $366k (exactly $366,417) Hide Games
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure 2 older $24.99 342 89% 10k $256k (exactly $256,397) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
That Time I Got Reincarnated as an Orc older $18.99 391 89% 12k $223k (exactly $222,753) HONEYSOFT
Ark of Artemis older $17.99 272 81% 8.2k $147k (exactly $146,798) Kujirabo。
Caves of Lore older $9.99 408 93% 12k $122k (exactly $122,278) by Mike Robins
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Shana - Priestess of Tona $9.99 190 74% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Lustration Team
Laura of Reigetsu $17.99 88 81% 2.6k $47k (exactly $47,494) piyokogundan
The Fortress $6.99 151 68% 4.5k $32k (exactly $31,665) Baryonyx Games
The Cuniculus of Paradise $16.99 57 87% 1.7k $29k (exactly $29,053) Doubles Core
Vambrace: Dungeon Monarch $14.99 61 70% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Dvora Studio Co. Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.