Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Mystery
Of 721 developers who shipped a Mystery Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,196 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×707 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,196 games are announced against 449 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) |
| Top 25% | $22k (exactly $21,557) |
| Top 5% | $336k (exactly $335,731) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 721 |
| Released games | 2,209 |
| Announced | 1,196 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 112,915 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 375 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,196 games are announced against 449 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy 2019 · $32M 
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017 · $28M 
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 2017 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy | older | $29.99 | 35,628 97% | 1.1M | $32M (exactly $32,054,512) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | What Remains of Edith Finch | older | $19.99 | 47,036 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,207,489) | Giant Sparrow |
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony | older | $39.99 | 21,978 82% | 659k | $26M (exactly $26,367,007) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc | older | $19.99 | 36,194 96% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,705,542) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
 | Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair | older | $19.99 | 30,961 95% | 929k | $19M (exactly $18,567,312) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
 | The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty | older | $9.99 | 49,765 94% | 1.5M | $15M (exactly $14,914,570) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | Revenge on gold diggers | $6.99 | 46,610 80% | 1.4M | $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) | 前方工作室 | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | HENPRI | $24.99 | 3,903 96% | 117k | $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) | Qruppo | |
 | The Incident at Galley House | $19.99 | 4,087 94% | 123k | $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) | William Rous, Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | The Mermaid Mask | $19.99 | 2,776 99% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) | SFB Games | |
 | PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse | $24.99 | 2,169 95% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) | Square Enix | |
 | 月华辉映之刻 | $11.99 | 4,227 89% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) | 侠客狗工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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