Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Souls-like?

Souls-like + Mystery

Of 39 developers who shipped a Mystery Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×5758 the market median. Revenue is up 545% on the market; 105 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 545% on the market, 105 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.9k → $300 → $897 → $4.9k → $14k → $51k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,852)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $34,354)
Top 5% $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 114
Announced 105
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 545% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 30,524 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M Kena: Bridge of Spirits 2022 · $20M Echoes of Aincrad 2026 · $8.6M Drova - Forsaken Kin 2024 · $7.1M MIO: Memories in Orbit 2026 · $2.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Kena: Bridge of Spirits older $39.99 16,701 91% 501k $20M (exactly $20,036,190) Ember Lab
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Scars Above older $29.99 2,775 77% 83k $2.5M (exactly $2,496,668) Mad Head Games
Withering Rooms older $24.99 1,209 96% 36k $906k (exactly $906,387) Moonless Formless
Source of Madness older $19.99 1,410 69% 42k $846k (exactly $845,577) Carry Castle
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY $17.99 494 79% 15k $267k (exactly $266,612) ASD Games Studio
Withering Realms · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Moonless Formless
Kromlech · EA $29.99 136 65% 4.1k $122k (exactly $122,359) Perun Creative
The Perfect Pencil $24.99 68 70% 2.0k $51k (exactly $50,980) Studio Cima
Memoirium $14.99 80 92% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,976) GoldenGratus
THE CANON OF BALLS $3.99 287 98% 8.6k $34k (exactly $34,354) Helios Monk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.