Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Platformer?

Platformer + Mystery

Of 204 developers who shipped a Mystery Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 422 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×574 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 422 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 422 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 204
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $959 → $599 → $535 → $1.0k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $809 (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 204
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,683)
Top 5% $273k (exactly $272,609)
Developers, 2 yr 204
Released games 668
Announced 422
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 320,199 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 422 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PEAK $7.99 301,964 94% 9.1M $72M (exactly $72,380,771) Team PEAK
ANIMAL WELL older $24.99 22,814 95% 684k $17M (exactly $17,103,656) Billy Basso
Night in the Woods older $19.99 17,760 94% 533k $11M (exactly $10,650,672) Infinite Fall
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
FEZ older $9.99 11,663 93% 350k $3.5M (exactly $3,495,401) Polytron Corporation
Creaks older $19.99 5,323 95% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,192,203) Amanita Design
The Pedestrian older $19.99 5,173 96% 155k $3.1M (exactly $3,102,248) Skookum Arts
FAR: Changing Tides older $19.99 5,077 92% 152k $3.0M (exactly $3,044,677) Okomotive
INMOST older $14.99 5,928 90% 178k $2.7M (exactly $2,665,822) Hidden Layer Games
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
Tomb Raider IV-VI Remastered $29.99 1,507 89% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,355,848) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
CYAN BRAIN $14.99 1,463 89% 44k $658k (exactly $657,911) NEKOUJI
BLADECHIMERA $14.99 1,358 88% 41k $611k (exactly $610,693) Team Ladybug, WSS playground
Planet of Lana II $19.99 875 91% 26k $525k (exactly $524,738) Wishfully
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Gecko Gods $19.99 629 96% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Inresin
Europa $14.99 778 85% 23k $350k (exactly $349,867) Helder Pinto, Chozabu (Alex PB), Novadu… (Helder Pinto, Chozabu (Alex PB), Novadust Entertainment)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.