Do I ship it?

Games › Party-Based RPG › Party-Based RPG + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Mystery

Of 39 developers who shipped a Mystery Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1256 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 92 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 92 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $2.9k → $9.6k → $4.1k → $1.5k → $599 → $899 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,136)
Top 5% $789k (exactly $788,919)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 105
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 8,615 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. All of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 3 Reload 2024 · $78M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M Town of Salem 2014 · $4.6M ONE PIECE ODYSSEY 2023 · $3.0M Persona 3 Portable 2023 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
ONE PIECE ODYSSEY older $39.99 2,502 78% 75k $3.0M (exactly $3,001,649) ILCA, Inc.
Persona 3 Portable older $19.99 4,728 81% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,835,382) ATLUS
Escape from Ever After $24.99 1,537 96% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289) Sleepy Castle Studio, Wing-It! Creative
Crystal Project older $13.99 2,510 91% 75k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,447) Andrew Willman
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
FLAM EVAW $9.99 1,378 95% 41k $413k (exactly $412,987) 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司
Born of Bread older $24.99 460 79% 14k $345k (exactly $344,862) WildArts Games
Dawn of the Ashen Queen $19.99 60 81% 1.8k $36k (exactly $35,982) Shattered Moon Games
Echo Generation 2 $24.99 41 73% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Cococucumber
Cairn: Mathair's Curse $19.99 48 89% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Ross McRitchie
Vessel $6.99 116 17% 3.5k $24k (exactly $24,325) OJStudio
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee
Frameland: A Binary Tale $9.99 48 97% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) Team Frameland
GhostCatcher · EA $8.99 45 51% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) SilverLuna Rift

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.