Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Souls-like?

Souls-like + Multiple Endings

Of 64 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $20k, ×13 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $9.7M, ×6510 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 182 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 182 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $4.5k → $7.2k → $8.4k → $34k → $27k → $3.6k (still earning) → $111k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $20k (exactly $19,726)
Top 25% $146k (exactly $145,829)
Top 5% $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 180
Announced 182
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Multiple Endings; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $27.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Funny, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $27.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 495,469 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $20k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $9.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
YOU and ME and HER: A Love Story older $29.99 6,033 95% 181k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,890) Nitroplus
Afterimage older $24.99 6,929 79% 208k $5.2M (exactly $5,194,671) Aurogon Shanghai
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
GRIME II $27.99 1,892 86% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) Clover Bite
Demon Lord: Just a Block $12.99 2,065 96% 62k $805k (exactly $804,730) YuWave
Fever Meme $4.20 4,358 91% 131k $549k (exactly $549,108) Aimbok
Solateria $19.99 710 83% 21k $426k (exactly $425,787) Studio Doodal

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.