Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Multiple Endings

Of 72 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 195 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×8.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1071 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 195 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 75% on the market, 195 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $1.8k → $9.6k → $49k → $2.4k → $6.0k → $13k (still earning) → $648 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,544)
Top 25% $60k (exactly $60,240)
Top 5% $672k (exactly $672,481)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 215
Announced 195
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG, Multiple Endings; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 17,145 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 195 games are announced against 46 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™ older $9.99 22,357 93% 671k $6.7M (exactly $6,700,393) Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Lin… (Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Linux, & Windows Update))
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Pyre older $19.99 8,396 90% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,035,081) Supergiant Games
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Swordhaven: Iron Conspiracy $24.99 783 75% 23k $587k (exactly $587,015) AtomTeam
New Arc Line · EA $24.99 687 68% 21k $515k (exactly $515,044) Dreamate
FLAM EVAW $9.99 1,378 95% 41k $413k (exactly $412,987) 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio
万象群侠传 $8.99 853 85% 26k $230k (exactly $230,054) 火天工作室
Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action $19.99 225 84% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Moonana

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.